The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) will “retain power” in the 2020 general elections, the latest Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report predicts.
According to the report, the Akufo-Addo-led government is largely seen as “better custodian of the economy than the opposition National Democratic Congress.”
“The next national elections are due in 2020. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to retain power, as the party is seen as a better custodian of the economy than the opposition National Democratic Congress,” the report said.
It added: “The NPP’s ambitious industrialisation programme will enjoy some success, with investment expected to continue, but overall progress will be hampered by structural weaknesses and regional imbalances. Rising oil and gas production will continue to support real GDP growth during the forecast period, with growth averaging 5.9% a year in 2019-23.”
“The government’s industrialisation push and moves to strengthen the banking sector will benefit non-oil economic growth, although the cost of capital will be prohibitive for some businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises. Inflation will remain high in 2019, at an average of 9.5%, given a weakening currency and strong growth in private consumption.
“The rate will remain close to the ceiling of the official 6-10% target range in 2020-23 for similar reasons. The cedi will remain prone to periods of volatility, given the country’s exposure to movements in commodity prices. From an average of GH¢4.58:US$1 in 2018, the currency will weaken to GH¢6.47:US$1 in 2023. We forecast that the current account will shift from an estimated deficit of 1.8% of GDP in 2018 to a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2023, owing to rising oil exports over the forecast period,” the EIU said.
The report said: “The next presidential and parliamentary elections are due in November 2020. During the remainder of the term in office of the president, Nana Akufo-Addo, the economic situation will generally improve. In the presidential election, Mr Akufo-Addo will face a challenge from John Mahama – Ghana’s president from 2012 to early 2017 -who was elected leader of the opposition NDC in February 2019. The campaign for the 2016 election was dominated by the faltering economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr Mahama. As a result, The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy, especially as the country’s growth outlook is fairly strong. We therefore expect Mr Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election in 2020. However, if the NDC can present a coherent opposition and hold the NPP to account on unfulfilled campaign promises -particularly on job creation and industrialisation, where progress has been generally slow and success patchy—the election could be closely contested.”
Source: Daily Mail GH